Ethiopian politics: why the ruling party wins and opposition parties lose.

Politics is a crucial game we play in life directly or indirectly. Any game of life has its own well defined rules and regulations that every interested player must know and be obliged to respect if they are determined to win. Such rules and regulations are eternal, apply everywhere for everyone _ they are also called life principles. They are the maps of life which guide us where to go, what to do or don’t and how. (Read: The Seven Habits Highly Effective People)

Whether negative or positive we never escape consequences of natural laws, otherwise life principles. Whoever breaches these laws is playing in favor of their opponents and hence is doomed to lose whereas whoever applies them correctly is there to win. Understanding the rules and regulations to heart, knowing ones' own strong and weak points and those of ones' opponents, attacking on the weak points of the opponents and evading whenever they are too tough to defeat are the sure ways to victory. (Read: The Art of War)

So far, Ethiopian Opposition politicians have participated in three national elections but they have lost three times consecutively. They have been calling for unity and integrity since EPRDF seized power. However, the more they pledge unity the more disunited they become. Their ad hoc integration disintegrates even before all votes are counted and the winner is announced. As a result, what they have lost was not only the past elections but the trust of voters as well.

But why is this so?

First whenever the play they play foul. They repeatedly violate the rules and regulations of the game, the FDRE constitution, the very rule that gave them the right to play. Some of their sworn in members are convicted criminals. They say that there is no justice in Ethiopia but they themselves carry banners of their guilty members and shout “Free mister X! Free Miss Y!”. If this is not criminal offence, I don’t know what else can be. They say there is no free press and freedom of expression is being violated. But they are the ones who denounce private media that report their mischievous acts.

Any journalist or concerned citizen that opposes the opposition bock is automatically labeled as an EPRDF mercenary. Semayawi Party, for instance, has drafted its own constitution though the party has not officially declared the FDRE constitution as void. But, its intention is not too far from declaring void and null. Because, has it not nullified the FDRE constitution, should not have drafted a totally new constitution that contradicts with one still at work.

And most opposition parties don’t accept Article 39, Rights of Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples, of sub article 1 which states “Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession. “

   

Second whenever they play right they play against the strongest sides of the ruling party, EPRDF. In 2006 Al Shabab declared jihad on Ethiopia. Ethiopia had to send its troops to Somalia to crash the Islamic fanatics to protect its sovereignty. But the opposition block except EDP voted against the move taken by EPRDF. It was a sheer suicidal for the opposition. For any sober citizen, the threat of the then Islamic Courts Union to violate Ethiopia's sovereignty was explicitly obvious.

Third the Ethiopian Great Renaissance Dam is one of the greatest projects the government has initiated to dam. All Ethiopians except a few fully supported the initiative and raised money for the project. The opposition block and their mouth piece irresponsible journalists; however, instead of supporting, tried to belittle it and claimed that the government’s initiative was meant to divert public attention from contemplating uprising like those of the Arabs. But, it was a kind of smashing oneself against a boulder.

Fourth Ethiopia is prone to terrorist attacks. From the north, the rogue regime of Eritrea is has been arming terrorists. As a result the UNSC has passed two sanctions against the regime. In Somalia Al Shabab is keen to terrorize our country. To mitigate such threats EPRDF devised anti terrorism law. However, the opposition block and its sympathizers bitterly opposed it and even petitioned for its cancelation. A bad move it really was.

Fifth the opposition block is highly dependent on the actions of the government.  They always consider that they should oppose whatever the government does. Whether the actions are for the benefit of the general public or not the oppositions simply react negatively. They never calculate the pros and cons of the actions. This helps the government to remain proactive while the oppositions keep reacting.

Most opposition leaders are either revanchist or are advocates of some revanchist Diaspora. The roots of almost all opposition leaders emanates from EPRP, Meison, EDU or EPRDF itself. These leaders did have a standoff with EPRDF and have experienced a devastating loss. Most of them still hold a grudge and bitterness that they cannot easily let go. Therefore, their opposing is not to enhance democratization in our country rather to retaliate for their humiliating defeat.

The last reason could be double personalities of some opposition leaders.

In our country, most opposition parties’ leaders have at least two kinds of personalities. For shallow observers they may look upright, just as innocent as the doves, to say so. But the curious ones cannot miss their clandestine gruesome intentions. Under the blanket, except few, they don’t hesitate to deal in rogue activities if they think such acts can take them where they want to go. “The end justifies the means” is still their motto though they may not state it.

To be specific, at night they go to the bushes, put on their rangers and deal in guerrilla warfare. On the day light, they come back to Addis Ababa, put on their best suits and they claim that they are struggling “peacefully” even if the political atmosphere is “tense”. A half guerrilla and half peaceful political game…damns do and damns don’t politics. At the end of the day, such a double-faced politics is a sure-fire way to lose the game.

G-7 and its sympathizers best fit to this claim; they used to oppose “peacefully” up to the 2005 gang-buster. It was in a blink of an eye, that their true nature was vividly revealed. Now, they are officially sharing beds with Isayas, a notorious mafia leader who never hesitates to blackmail even its citizens. 
They have had a “great deal” with some Egyptian fanatics as well, and have amassed a half million US dollars to run the most atrocious treason against the “nation they are struggling for”. The rest have not gone official yet though some of their members heaving a heap of dirt.

Here is the dilemma; however, whoever keeps winning while their opponents lose, the real loser is the public. The opposition parties may not satisfy the urge of their ego, yet it still remains a short term loss as compared to that of the society, which may continue for centuries. Politicians are not altruists that work selflessly for the needs of the general public; they are there for their own business…

And in Ethiopia’s context most business people, if not all, are “rent seekers” that pursue handsome profits without adding any values. The elites are not much different, in this case. They tune their political games contemplating how to amass social respect without reciprocity. Once they hold unshakable power, the only thing they know is how much they must be served, not how much they should serve the public. That is the only way, they think, to realize a better service.

Therefore, to avoid such political parasites, it is better to swap one for another. We need a market, like that of "Merkato", from which to buy the best quality politicians or else, the parasites may forget that their hosts are fed up with them… that they have no more patience left to endure the leech. Here is one funny but explanatory quote, “Politicians and diapers should be changed frequently and all for the same reason.”  

To achieve this, the opposition parties should avoid their weaknesses listed above. It is time for them to act peacefully, decide independently, oppose cooperatively or even synergistically. And above all they must respect the constitution since it is the law of the land that gave them the right to oppose.